Tag Archive: tax reform

Separating Signal from Noise: How Corporate Boards Are Making Sense of the New Administration

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A few weeks into the Trump presidency, it is tempting to obsess about the political rhetoric and soundbites coming out of Washington, DC. While the first month of this new administration is certainly unprecedented in style, method, and message, the real cumulative impact on business remains unclear.

The combination of the chaotic start, the many political appointee vacancies across key departments and agencies, conflicting policy views between a Republican White House and Republican-controlled Congress on key issues, and ongoing investigations makes it challenging for businesses to respond and separate signal from noise.

Nevertheless, a recent pulse survey conducted by the National Association of Corporate Directors (NACD) offers some early insight into how companies and their boards are starting to navigate this new political environment.

Trump Blog Graphs-011. A small majority of respondents (51%) is positive or very positive about the possible impact of the new administration on the growth prospects for their companies in the next 2 years. Almost 29 percent of respondents rated the possible “Trump effect” on business as either negative or very negative.

The differences in outlook are likely influenced by the relative dependence of individual companies on the benefits of international trade, the expected industry benefits of deregulation and infrastructure spending, and perceptions about the impact of a changing US leadership role in the global economy and security architecture.


2. Corporate tax reform, deregulation, and trade protectionism are the most highly ranked “policy” topics that respondents plan to discuss at their next board meeting.
That’s not surprising since the (gradual) effect of policy changes in these three areas can significantly alter cost and revenue Trump Blog Graphs-02projections for business. The big question for many boards and executive teams will be whether the potential
fallout from trade protectionism (actions by the United States and possible retaliation by its trading partners) would offset any gains from a reduced tax and regulatory burden.

Trump’s unorthodox approach of injecting himself in the daily business of individual companies and their decisions seems to concern fewer respondents. Only 13 percent plan to discuss reputational exposure and management at their next board meeting.


3. Fifty-one percent of companies are now reassessing core assumptions about the impact of new and proposed policies on their strategic growth plans,
which is an important exercise when so many key variables are moving or likely to move in the near future (for example, corporate tax rates, inflation, value of the dollar, interest rates, and import/export barriers).

Trump Blog Graphs-03Also, in response to the speed and ferocity with which consumers in this very polarized environment now react to corporate actions, many business leaders are beginning to proactively communicate the authenticity of their brand and their company’s contributions to society. More than 44 percent of respondents report that their companies are now reaffirming their core values and commitments to key stakeholder groups.

4. Only 25 percent of respondents decided to introduce scenario planning exercises to adapt to changes in the operating environment. Of that group, 85 percent are considering discontinuous scenarios based on major swings in key economic indicators, while 76 percent are scenario planning different outcomes from the planned overhaul of the US corporate tax system. Other macro-issues, for which boards will use scenario-planning in the coming months, include the possible repeal of the Affordable Care Act, the commercial fallout of trade protectionism, and the impact of significant geopolitical crises.

If used effectively, these scenario exercises can help open the minds of decision-makers—corporate directors included—to different signals, and prepare for surprises that directly affect the business strategy. Leading companies actively monitor for such signposts that would trigger course corrections in their strategic pathway.

To help corporate directors sense and respond to changes in this operating environment, NACD continuously assesses and interprets the impact of emerging issues. Every week we post our most recent analyses in our Emerging Issues Resource Center. Stories are accessible to all members.

What Does the Trump Presidency Mean for the Economy?

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Joseph Brusuelas

The upset presidential election victory of Donald J. Trump and the Republican party’s victory in races for the House of Representatives and the Senate signal major changes ahead in both the federal government’s approach to growth and the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy. Most evident among forthcoming policy changes will be a return of supply-side tax cuts, large operating fiscal deficits, and a move back toward more traditional monetary policies that, over time, should lead to higher short and long-term interest rates.

Below is an outline of my views on the implications of a Trump presidency for economic growth, taxes and infrastructure, central bank policy, and interest rates and trade.

Economic Growth

My firm anticipates that the Trump administration will attempt to achieve the economic equivalence of a strategic breakout with respect to the pace of economic growth. In other words, with the economy mired in a long-term sluggish growth path below 2 percent, the administration will turn to deficit spending, infrastructure, and fiscal stimulus to achieve stronger economic growth. The administration will also seek to reform Dodd-Frank in a significant way, which would be a boost for Wall Street, and will also move to inject private competition into the health care system.

While there will likely be a faster pace of growth in the near term, uncertainty about the role and status of the U.S. in the global economy may combine to create longer-term issues, particularly involving free trade that, ironically, act as a drag on growth.

Taxes and infrastructure

From a purely economic point of view, it will be difficult to lift the long-term growth trend much above 1.5 percent without significant tax reform and productivity-enhancing changes related to tax investments and improving national infrastructure. Given the major demographic challenges associated with the aging of the Baby Boomer generation, and the gradual entry of the Millennial generation into the workforce, the underlying conditions of the post-Great Recession economy are not conducive to a quicker pace of growth unless there is major tax and entitlement reform.

In our estimation, based on visits to policymakers in Washington, the order of operations for the first two years of the Trump Administration will likely proceed in the following fashion.

  • A move to engage on comprehensive tax reform will likely be one of the primary orders of business in January 2017. We expect the Trump administration to work with Congress to craft a deal that would revolve around lower individual and business tax rates along with an end to corporate tax inversions. Under these conditions, an attempt to lower individual tax rates based on the framework set out in the House Republican blueprint released in June of this year of 12, 25, and 33 percent, would be the most significant tax reform since 1986.At the heart of Trump’s tax plan is the intention to reduce taxes on pass-through entities (eg, sole proprietorships, limited liability companies, S Corps., and so on) to 15 percent, which would decisively favor the middle market, which accounts for 40 percent of GDP and employs one-third of the labor force.
  • The probability that a bipartisan bill on a multi-year infrastructure project will pass is high. The glue that would hold this together would likely be parallel legislation that would seek to tax the $2.6 trillion in corporate profits being held abroad. There is growing realization in both political parties that the infrastructure around the country has been allowed to slip into such disrepair that it has become something of a national embarrassment.

It is important to note that a robust infrastructure is not an economic panacea. It is a long-run productivity-enhancing policy that is more of a legacy issue, as opposed to something that will jump start economic activity in the near-term. If there is no tax reform, then growth will remain decisively in the sub 2 percent range.


Joseph Brusuelas is chief economist of RSM US.