Confidence in the economy is a broad topic to discuss. Just as one area starts to show positive growth, the world is shaken by a different downturn or disaster. In an article last month in the New York Times, economist Paul Krugman discussed the increased complexity of the current economy, compared to the months following the most recent financial crisis. In late 2008, the world’s collective attention was on the falling stock market. Today, there are many areas contributing to overall economic confidence: inflation, employment, oil prices and so forth. As Krugman notes, “we’re living in a world that is characterized not so much by the sum of all fears as by some of all fears.”
NACD’s most recent Board Confidence Index (BCI) reflects this conflicted view. In Q2 2011, the Index fell from 64.9 to 63.1, the first time it has dropped since its creation in the autumn of 2010. When asked to characterize the current state of the economy compared to one year ago, directors registered a confidence index of 68, a decrease of five full points since Q1 2011. Directors also feel less confident in the progress made in the short run—looking at changes in conditions over the past quarter, confidence dropped to 59 from 61.
However, the slight decline in confidence is countered with a more optimistic view for the coming months. Just this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke projected increased growth for the next six months in remarks following the Central Bank’s Beige Book release. According to Bernanke, policymakers will be focused on the labor markets. According to the Q2 2011 BCI, the boardroom agrees. Despite slowed growth, nearly half of corporate directors (43%) plan to expand the workforce in the upcoming quarter. In addition to hiring practices, directors are generally more confident regarding the future. Expectations for the next year stand at an assured 67.
Recently released data from The Conference Board (TCB) echoes the caution seen in the boardroom. Despite higher predictions, TCB’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 60.8 from a revised 66 in April. Unsurprisingly, American consumers are troubled by the current combination of increased costs for food, the increased cost of oil and the depressed real estate market.
The Board Confidence Index is conducted by NACD in conjunction with Heidrick & Struggles and Pearl Meyer & Partners. Q3 2011 results can be expected in September.