Peter Bible, standing, discusses geopolitical risk.
“I put the future of risk in two buckets,” Bible said. “First, there are black swans. They are things that are embedded [in the business environment and society at large], and when they come to light they are so disruptive they are devastating. Brexit was embedded in the way people felt in the United Kingdom. Our own election was an upheaval of sentiment. The other thing is the butterfly effect where some movement somewhere around the world can disrupt what you’re doing. That’s how you have to think about geopolitical risk.”
Here, strategy and risk oversight can enable a company to better weather disruptions that arise from changes in a country’s leadership or regulatory agenda. As one director observed, part of the trick is to be able to look out on the horizon, realizing that it’s impossible to have the foresight to identify every disruptor that can threaten the business.
“Get to know the business unit heads,” one participant suggested. “It gives you a feel for what they think the strategic risks and opportunities are—it changes how the board is reacting to strategy and risk.”
“When we first approached enterprise risk management,” another participant offered, “the whole board owned risk management and we reached to an outside firm for help. When the firm interviewed management and the board, the risk factors each group identified didn’t match up. People view the world from where they sit. So, we sat down with management and developed a top ten list that we could all bite into. Reconcile the risks as best you can and figure out how to move forward.”
Lacking a well-rounded worldview can be especially damaging for multinational companies, which need to consider risks that are unique to each country in which they operate. “I think we in the United States don’t take time to understand how different countries operate both as a country and as a culture,” one director remarked. “Think about benefits for employees. Most of those countries have national healthcare, so automatically you have a different cost structure of how your business looks in that country. And that can either lower or raise your company’s risk profile. As you get into other parts of the world, the nuances are very different and sometimes we think the rest of the world operates as we do. That’s a part that we as a culture need to understand. Think global act local needs to be implemented more in corporate strategies.”
Bible then refocused the conversation to focus on how the current regulatory environment stands to create both risks and opportunities. “There is a deregulation movement underway and many businesses are hurt by this because they make their money based on current regulations. If 75 percent of the regulations that are currently on the books are going to come off, what does that do to your business model? What regulations do you depend on for progress?”
One participant brought up Uber Technologies as an ideal case in point. The taxi industry is heavily regulated; however, Uber is allowed to follow its own set of rules. Another participant observed that having a Federal Communications Commission chair with an anticompetitive stance is going to be highly disruptive for telecommunications companies. For example, some critics argue that removing some net neutrality protections will lead to companies having to pay fees to broadband providers for faster download speeds to ensure that their goods and services can easily reach consumers. This could be especially detrimental to startup telecommunications companies and smaller Internet service providers which don’t have the financial resources of larger, more established companies.
While regulation compliance can be expensive and time consuming, one attendee noted that not all regulations are bad. “Identify which regulations benefit you and your competitors; it’s a good inventory to have,” Bible said in closing. “A lot of things are on the table right now and the potential to have your business hurt by deregulation is definitely there.
Click here for highlights from the portion of this roundtable discussion that focused on the business implications of social media and artificial intelligence.
That may sound like odd advice. After all, the whole world has gone digital—digital channels, digital stores, digital communities—and most businesses have spent the past decade thinking about almost nothing else.
But I’d argue that digital has become too pervasive to make sense as its own category. There’s no world of clicks separate from the world of bricks. There’s just a new hybrid world where people live their lives—a world in which “digital” is no longer a useful way to organize your thinking.
Boards should focus instead on a related “D” word: disruption. Thanks to digitization, all of us—at work, at home, and on the go—have new expectations about services, products, relationships, and experiences. We want higher levels of richness, relevance, convenience, and timeliness in all our interactions with companies. Disruptors like Uber Technologies, Amazon.com, and Facebook, have found ways to meet rising expectations, and in doing so they’ve defined what “good” looks like everywhere. These tech juggernauts are signaling that they intend to insert themselves anywhere they can remove friction, capture customer attention, drive out market inefficiencies, or strip away information to fuel their data and insight engines.
Most important, as digitization unfolds, power has shifted from companies to people, from supply side to demand side. That means boards need to focus on fundamental questions. They need to focus less on “where the puck is heading” and more on questions that dig in deeper: How fast can we move? Does our company have time to shift from low-growth to high-growth businesses, before disruptors steal our customers? Where do we have assets that can become the basis of new information-powered businesses? And the crucial issue in a time when customers are immersed in offers of low price and one-click convenience: How does our company stay relevant? How do we change our strategy for capturing and retaining customers’ attention?
The point isn’t to be right about the end-state—you won’t be. But you do need to encourage your management team to develop a point of view about how the future is shaping up, areas that your company has strong idea about, areas of weakness that may need more strategic thought, and options that will let you rally behind certainty and probe uncertainty. With this kind of framing, the board can take a disciplined approach to managing risk from digital disruption, instead of just trying to minimize or avoid it altogether. ‘Disruptors at your doorstep’ can become a rallying force and focusing lens —helping your team make clear choices about what to keep, what to start, and what to stop, liberating resources from declining businesses to fund growth and business reinvention. Put differently, think of imminent disruption as a crisis. As we’ve learned from times past, never waste a crisis.
The other critical conversation is about modernization of core capabilities, work approaches, and talent. Often this conversation shows up as an innovation challenge. As large incumbents, can we do new things and do things differently? Can we take a page from the playbook of digital market leaders like Amazon and Google? Some of these companies rent and assemble capabilities to get further faster, as opposed to building and managing everything on their own. They appear to work fluidly across functional and product “silos”—in fact, they have no silos to combat. And they tune their business cadence on the inside to reflect rapid changes in the external environment. In other words, they can operate in agile cycles with integrated teams.
Is your response to these thorny issues a “digital strategy”? I’d argue not. Disruption, on the other hand, requires vigorous debate to focus management energy on doing the right things, faster and with greater flexibility.
So forget about digital strategy. You’ve been losing sleep over it for too long. If you focus on the right issues, you won’t necessarily sleep better, but you’ll get a lot more value out of those wakeful hours. And value, after all, is the point.
Rick Chavez is a Partner and the Americas Head of Digital at Oliver Wyman.
Directors and executives could be forgiven for feeling like digital transformation has materialized out of thin air to attack their business models and markets. For most sectors, “digital” has historically been confined to tactical efforts across websites, mobility, social media, and e-commerce. Digital efforts were important to marketing execution but certainly did not inform overall business model strategy, much less determine which companies won, lost, or failed to survive. And while everyone is familiar with the global Internet giants that have emerged over the past two decades to dominate markets and stock indices, until recently digital disruption had not yet penetrated beyond the traditional realms of media, content, and e-commerce.
The massive competitive challenges witnessed in these early domains have now arrived in every other sector. Billboards lining airport corridors proclaim the urgency for companies to digitally transform. Corporations are funding incubators, venture funds, and innovation programs, and are facing the task of shaping the future of work. Many consulting firms and agencies make claims to broader digital transformation expertise, regardless of their historic core capabilities.
It is easy for leaders to get lost amidst the clamor. What follows is an account of the past, present, and the possible future of digital business risks and strategy that could help your board discuss digital business model risk and winning strategies.
Tracing the Origins
Along with my co-author, I presented the foundations of digital transformation and the strategic and financial performance considerations in a previous article. To begin to grasp how digital transformation impacts value creation, and to build on the concepts outlined below, I suggest starting there. The basic competitive dynamics across all past and emerging digitization phases reinforce the business model risk that directors and executives should understand as digital disruption changes their sectors.
The graphic below describes the primary phases of digitization over the past two decades and the emerging waves.
Click the graph to enlarge in a new window.
A pattern emerges across the phases. First, a primary enabling technology emerges, targeting specific product and service domains within a selection of target sectors. As these products and services are digitized, leading companies within these target sectors bring to market entirely new business models based on the primary enabling technology of the phase. These companies bring new value propositions to market and rewrite the rules of competition in the sector. For example, Google reinvented advertising, Amazon.com reinvented retail, Uber and other ride-sharing companies are reinventing transportation, and Social Finance (SoFi) is reinventing loans. Existing companies in these target sectors that fail to evolve their business models lose market share or cease to exist, while new, dominant-phase leaders emerge.
This dynamic has been consistent across the first three digitization phases, resulting in massive disruption across the target sectors as well as a recalibration of the world’s most valuable companies list—despite the relatively small number of target sectors initially involved. Currently, the dominant digitization phase is driven by Internet of Things (IoT) and smart products technologies, with implications for all machines, all physical products and the companies that design, manufacture, sell, and operate them.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning technologies are also in broad, albeit early, deployment with implications for every sector of the economy, including forming the foundational elements of continued robotics and digitized biology and chemistry.
This is an admittedly simplified picture. Primary enabling technologies do not evolve in isolation from earlier phases, and the phases themselves do not end. For example, more and more content continues to be digitized (from newspapers to videos to augmented or virtual reality), while the scope of digital services continues to expand (from basic e-commerce to mobile payments to blockchains) and AI is reinventing all previous primary enabling technologies. Furthermore, leadership in one stage of digitization does not guarantee continued leadership as the cycle continues. Yahoo! was among the major winners of the original content digitization phase but failed to evolve, while Google, which emerged during the same phase, has consistently grown in line with emerging technologies. Meanwhile, General Electric Co. and General Motors Co. are bucking the trend of established companies falling to digital upstarts to assume leadership in the industrial IoT and automotive markets.
While it is helpful to understand the enabling digital technologies, it is primarily beneficial for directors at companies of all types to seek to understand the implications of these technologies on the products, industries, and business models of their companies, and ensure that their CEOs have a sound strategy to address these considerations.
Every sector is now in the crosshairs of digitization. Many business leaders not operating in the initial target industries, however, have never been trained on how to think about digital transformation strategically. So long as a company was not in a target sector of digitization, it was sufficient to deploy point solutions related to the primary enabling technology of each phase, such as websites, mobile applications, e-commerce offerings, and a social media presence—and, indeed, it has always been important for companies to keep up with these tactics. Directors and the C-suite should understand, however, that this approach is not sufficient when it is their own sectors that are the primary focus of digitization.
Ryan McManus is senior vice president of partnerships and corporate development for EVRYTHNG, the IoT Smart Products platform company and serves on the board of Nortech Systems, the advisory board of Carlabs AI, and two advisory boards with the Aspen Institute. He is the founder of Accenture’s Digital Business Strategy and Transformation practice, has served an advisor to Fortune 100 companies, and is the author of numerous articles on digital transformation and corporate strategy. Ryan earned his MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
Want to hear more from Ryan? Attend his session at the 2017 Global Board Leaders’ Summit. Learn more and register here.