The uncertainty of looking to the future presses boards to consider how confident their senior executives and supporting teams are in executing strategy. How can the board help the companies they oversee to face the future with a greater sense of confidence?
Confidence is neither a cliché nor an assertion of mere optimism. Rather, it is a quality that drives leaders and their companies forward. The Oxford English Dictionary defines confidence as “the state of feeling certain about the truth of something” and “a feeling of self-assurance arising from one’s appreciation of one’s own abilities or qualities.” This definition focuses on the board and management’s appreciation of the collective capabilities of the enterprise, including the ability to carry out a company’s vision. It raises three fundamental questions:
Do weknow where we’re going directionally and why? Are our people committed to achieving a common vision that is clearly articulated, meaningful, and aspirational?
Are we prepared for the journey? Does our staff have the capabilities to execute our strategy? Do we have a great team, a strong roadmap, and the required processes, systems and alliances, and sufficient resources to sustain our journey?
Dowepossesstheability, will, anddiscipline to cope withchange alongthe way,nomatterwhathappens? Does our board have the mental toughness to stay on course? Is our management team agile and adaptive enough to recognize market opportunities and emerging risks, and capitalize on, endure, or overcome them by making timely adjustments to strategy and capabilities?
Definitive, positive responses to these questions from the board will enable confidence across the organization.
Looking back on experiences working with successful companies, seven attributes were identified that organizations must have when facing the uncertainty of future markets.
How to Build the Foundation for Confidence
Confidentorganizationssharecommitmenttoa vision. Commitment to a vision provides a shared “future pull” that is both inspiring and motivating. This perspective fuels enterprise-wide focus and energy to learn, which encourages participation and altruistic camaraderie. An effective vision crafted by the board and executive team leads people at all levels of a company to recognize that the enterprise’s success and their personal success are inextricably linked.
Confident organizations have a heightened awareness of the environment. A confident organization constantly reality tests its market understanding by facilitating effective listening to customers, suppliers, employees, and other stakeholders. Boards should encourage companies to generate sources of new learning, encouraging systemic thinking in distilling and acting on the environment feedback received, with the objective of driving continuous improvement. The confident organization fosters a culture of sharing and supports formal and informal continuous feedback loops to flatten the organization, get closer to the customer, and promote a preparedness mindset.
Confidentorganizationsaligntheirrequiredcapabilities. It is a never-ending priority of the board to ensure that the right talent and capabilities are in place to achieve differentiation in the marketplace and execute strategies successfully. Capabilities include an enterprise’s superior know-how, innovative processes, proprietary systems, distinctive brands, collaborative cultures, and a unique set of supplier and customer relationships.
How to Sustain Confidence
Achieving a foundation of confidence is necessary, but alone is not enough without concerted efforts to sustain confidence. Astute directors and executives know that the ability, will, and discipline to cope with change are also needed to sustain their journey. Those winning traits are enabled by the attributes below.
Confidentorganizationsare risk-savvy. The confident organization is secure in the knowledge that it has considered all plausible risk scenarios, knows its breakpoint in the event of extreme scenarios, and has effective response plans in place (including plans to exit the strategy if circumstances warrant). Most importantly, the confident organization should have an effective early-warning capability in place to alert decision-makers of changes in the marketplace that affect the validity of critical strategic assumptions. In a truly confident organization, no idea or person is above challenge and contrarian views are welcomed.
Confidentorganizationslearnaggressively. Confident organizations improve their learning by: creating centers of excellence; embracing cutting-edge technology to drive the vision forward; fostering an open, transparent environment of ongoing knowledge sharing, networking, collaboration, and team learning; perceiving admission of errors as a strength and requiring learning from the missteps; and converting lessons learned into process improvements. Aggressive learning stimulates the collective genius of the entire enterprise.
Confidentorganizationsplaceapremiumoncreativity. Innovation should be an integral part of the corporate DNA of the confident company, and should be evidenced by setting accountability for results with innovation-focused metrics at the organizational, process, and individual levels to encourage and reward creativity. Companies committed to innovation have the creative capacity to take advantage of market opportunities and respond to emerging risks. When innovation is a strategic imperative, companies empower and reward their employees to take the appropriate risks to realize new ideas without encumbering them with the fear of repercussions if they aren’t successful.
Confidentorganizationsare resilient. Confident organizations have adaptive processes supported by disciplined decision-making, and are committed to adapt early to continuous and disruptive change. They have the will to stay the course when the going gets tough, and are prepared to act decisively to revise strategic plans in response to changing market realities. They do not allow competitors to gain advantage by building large capital reserves, having great relationships with their lenders, and by cultivating trusting relationships with their customers, vendors and shareholders. The strategies that their boards approve include triggers for contingency plans that directors and management will implement if certain predetermined events occur or conditions arise.
In summary, the speed of change continues to escalate, creating more uncertainty about future developments and outcomes. If there was ever a time for a board to assess an organization’s confidence, we believe it is now. It’s one thing to have a confident CEO, but if the people within the entity lack confidence, the organization itself may not have the creativity and resiliency needed to sustain a winning strategy.
Jim DeLoach is managing director with Protiviti, a global consulting firm.
Corporate directors are confronted with a variety of recently proposed governance standards, while activist investor campaigns are challenging both board composition and board effectiveness by targeting individual directors. Given the high level of personal reputational risk and the associated long-term financial consequences now faced by directors, a hard look at the adequacy of company-sponsored director and officer (D&O) risk mitigation and board compensation strategies is timely.
The Bedrock of Certainty Shifts
Shifting stakeholder expectations are codified in the frequently conflicting governance standards published in recent years. Following the National Association of Corporate Director’s own 2011 Key Agreed Principles, there are now draft voting guidelines from Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis & Co.; standards from groups such as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (regulator), CalSTRS (investor), the G20, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (influencer); and, most recently, the Commonsense Corporate Governance Principles from a group of CEOs led by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon.
This proliferation of standards reflects differing stakeholder expectations and gives direct rise to new risks for directors. With these new risks and expectations emerge associated questions about the adequacy of current governance strategies, company-sponsored reputation-risk-mitigation packages, and director compensation.
Because the board is the legal structure administering governance, the standards that boards choose to guide their oversight have legal force. Furthermore, detailed, prescriptive standards have instrumental force.
For instance, ISS and CalSTRS are promoting highly prescriptive standards. ISS is exploring specific “warning signs” of impaired governance, including monitoring boards that have not appointed a new director in five years, where the average tenure of directors exceeds 10 or 15 years, or where more than 75 percent of directors have served 10 years or longer. CalSTRS expects two-thirds of a board to be comprised of independent directors, and defines director independence specifically as having held no managerial role in the company during the past five years, equity ownership of less than 20 percent equity, and having a commercial relationship with the company valued at no more than $120,000 per year.
The Commonsense Corporate Governance Principles released this summer was an effort to share the thoughts of the 5,000 or so public companies “responsible for one-third of all private sector employment and one-half of all business capital spending.” Certain background facts may lead some stakeholders to discount the Principles. For example, in addition to Dimon, the list of signatories was comprised mostly of executives who hold the dual company roles of chair and CEO. Also, according to the Financial Times, eyebrows have been raised by CEO performance-linked bonuses of about 24 to 27 times base pay at BlackRock and T. Rowe Price, two asset manager companies with executives who were signatories. Coincidentally, these asset manager companies were ranked among the most lenient investors with respect to the executive pay of their investee companies, according to the research firm Proxy Insight.
These standards can be deployed by checklist, and boards can be audited for compliance to the specifics of the adopted standards. But, more importantly, the very existence of these standards lends them authority through expressive force. What they express—or signal, in behavioral economic parlance—is intent, goodwill, and values. Signaling is valuable in the court of public opinion.
Personal Protection Strategies
As reported in NACD Directorshipmagazine earlier this year, activists often wage battle in the court of public opinion to garner public support when mounting an attack against a company. Emphasizing the personal risks, the Financial Times reported in August that “Corporate names are resilient: when their images get damaged, a change of management or strategy will often revive their fortunes. But personal reputations are fragile: mess with them and it can be fatal.”
Make no mistake: this risk is personal. A director’s damaged personal reputation comes with material costs. Risk Management reported in September that the opportunity costs to the average corporate director arising from public humiliation were estimated at more than $2 million.
Among the many governance standards, pay issues are the third rail of personal reputation risks. “If companies don’t use common sense to control pay outcomes, [shareholders have to question] what else is going on at the organization and the dynamic between the chief executive and the board,” an asset manager with Railpen Investments told the Financial Times recently. Clawbacks may be the most disconcerting pay issue because the tactic places directors personally between both the investment community and regulators.
Governance standards just over the horizon may give boards succor, and reputation-risk-transfer solutions may have immediate benefits. Since 2014, the American Law Institute (ALI) has been developing a framework titled, “Compliance, Enforcement, and Risk Management for Corporations, Nonprofits, and Other Organizations.” Members of the project’s advisory committee include representatives from Goldman Sachs & Co., HSBC, Google, Clorox, and Avon Products; diverse law firms offering governance advisory services; law schools; regulators including the Department of Justice; and representatives from a number of prominent courts. According to the ALI, the project is likely to hold an authority close to that accorded to judicial decisions.
The ALI work product remains a well-protected secret, but the project is expected to recommend standards and best practices on compliance, enforcement, risk management, and governance. It can be expected that the ALI standards will reflect the legal community’s newly acquired recognition of the interactions between the traditional issues of compliance, director and officer liabilities, and economics; and the newer issues of cognitive and behavioral sciences. Such governance standards will likely speak to the fact that while director and officer liability will be adjudicated in the courts of law, director and officer culpability will be adjudicated in the courts of public opinion.
Insurance Solutions Available Now
Boards that qualify for reputational insurances and their expressive force can mitigate risks in the court of public opinion. An NACDDirectorshiparticle noted earlier this year, “ . . . these reputation-based indemnification instruments, structured like a performance bond or warranty with indexed triggers, communicate the quality of governance, essentially absolving board members of damaging insinuations by activists.”
Given the increased personal reputational risks facing directors and the long-term financial consequences arising, it may be time for an omnibus revisit of the adequacy of both director compensation and company-sponsored D&O risk mitigation strategies in the context of an enhanced, board-driven approach to governance, compliance, and risk management.
Following the guidelines of the ALI’s project once they are published is a rational strategy. After all, the work product will be one that will have already been “tested” informally in the community comprising the courts of law, and will be designed to account for the reality of the courts of public opinion. And no firm today has natural immunity to reputation damage—even Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway appears to be in the ISS crosshairs. Reputational insurances which, like vaccines, boost immunity, are available to qualified boards to counter all that is certain to come at them in this upcoming proxy season. And for those who insist on both belts and suspenders, hazardous duty pay may seal the deal.
Nir Kossovsky is CEO of Steel City Re and an authority on business process risk and reputational value. He can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org. Paul Liebman is chief compliance officer and director of University Compliance Services at the University of Texas at Austin. He can be contacted at email@example.com.
This is the second of a three-part series looking at the global economy and uncertainty in 2016. In our first post, we addressed the challenges of slow growth in developed and emerging markets. In our next post, we will focus on the outlook for 2017.
DJ Peterson, President, Longview Global Advisors
Businesses need supportive, stable political and legal institutions to prosper, yet the global landscape has become increasingly unstable as many once-implausible events have become realities.
Since the start of 2016, the United Kingdom has voted itself out of the European Union. The U.S. Republican Party is pulling itself apart over policy and personalities. In Europe, fences are replacing open borders and Jihadi terrorists are targeting festivals, shopping centers, churches, and other public gathering places. Investors pay to lend their money to governments even as debt risks mount.
In conversations, business leaders and directors repeatedly express surprise and concern at the turn of events. What’s fueling this instability? Are recent events indicative of a “new normal,” a brief detour, or a transition to a new equilibrium? And, as the end-of-year business strategy season approaches, what should corporate directors and executives focus on?
Each country has unique characteristics, but there are some important interdependencies. Four powerful, converging political forces are at play.
1. Slow growth is fueling political volatility
As noted in a previous post, global growth has been muted and uneven since the global financial crisis, prompting some economists to ask whether the world has entered a period of “secular stagnation.” Energy and commodities exporters such as Australia, Brazil, Russia, and countries in much of Africa have been particularly hard hit.
Economic hardship often leads to political volatility, but there is a larger political force at play today: A lack of policy consensus and latitude. To turn the situation around, global financial institutions have been calling on governments to undertake bold structural reforms and assertive stimulus measures such as investing in infrastructure. But thanks to large debt piles and continuing calls for austerity from fiscal hawks, big spending increases are not politically feasible in the U.S. and Europe. Emerging markets dependent on commodities exports have been forced into belt-tightening mode as well. The inability of governments to reignite growth has forced central bankers to step into the breech with extraordinary measures.
Policymakers struggle to reignite growth, people are disaffected, and the sum of this instability is the political uncertainty and volatility we are experiencing today.
2. Inequality is adding to political frustrations
Free market liberalism is predicated on creating economic opportunity, but the benefits have not been shared. In many countries, inequality has surged since the 1980s. More recently, quantitative easing, a response to slow growth, has lifted a few boats greatly. In the past, governments often played the role of an equalizer; now proximity to political power is seen as conferring huge economic benefits, creating the belief that “the system” is not fair.
Free trade could be a casualty of increasing inequality and diminished opportunity. The perception that the benefits of globalization accrue disproportionately to certain segments of the population while the losers are left to fend for themselves is pervasive. Anti-immigrant sentiment is another by-product of limited opportunity.
Animosity towards politically connected elites in authoritarian markets is kept in check by repression. Open societies may be more at risk to economic and political polarization. As we see with Brexit, the pushback against globalization, and with the rise of anti-immigrant pressures, middle-ground policy pragmatism—a hallmark of stable democracy—is losing credibility in a world of economic resentments.
3. Populists are exploiting the governance gap
The widespread belief that establishment elites are incapable of solving important problems has created a volatile atmosphere where disaffected voters are willing to take risks and throw wrenches.
Private sector entrepreneurs exploit gaps in the market and find new ways to satisfy needs. Political entrepreneurs do the same in the public sphere: They take advantage of volatility, peddle new solutions (often from both left and right), and break rules.
Dramatic, frustration-driven policy stances of political entrepreneurs make compelling platforms—such as Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s anti-drug dealer campaign and French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigrant stance. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are political entrepreneurs too.
But that’s only half the story. In this context, calls for pragmatism and staying the course (“Vote Remain!”) from establishment figures sound tired, if not suspect.
4. Social media is catalyzing volatility
Thanks to social media, populists can peddle their ideas with greater ease than previously seen, without having to adhere to the agenda of establishment media and institutions. (The self-described Islamic State is the most extreme example.) Being provocative is essential to gaining visibility in today’s crowded media landscape and this imperative promotes extreme points of view and places pressures on policymakers to react—even though in representative democracies governments are designed to be deliberative and consensual.
Just as individuals may be overwhelmed by the pace and quality of information flows, so too can governing institutions that were built to be slowed by checks and balances. Few would say policymaking in the U.S. has improved over the past couple of decades thanks to better information. Nationalism, ethnocentrism, and religious animosities seem more powerful than ever.
What can corporate directors do?
Western multinationals can no longer take political stability for granted. In these volatile times, directors have an important role to play in asking the right questions and discerning material risks and opportunity in a time of uncertainty.
Integrate political and economic risk assessment into corporate strategy setting. The political forces outlined above are unlikely to change in the foreseeable future which suggests a number of scenarios. Slow growth and low interest rates are likely to persist. The U.S. presidential election is unlikely to fundamentally change the country’s political climate for the better—indeed, it could lead to more disaffection, polarization, and gridlock. Uncertainty will increase in Europe with Brexit negotiations and national elections in France and Germany in 2017. Boards should pressure test macro-assumptions from management about the external environment affecting strategy over the next 12-24 months. What are the most important moving variables and how will they affect growth prospects?
Look for pockets of opportunity. Volatility creates opportunities as well as risks. Good governance and sound policies are differentiators between countries poised to sustain relatively stronger economic performance, and those that will continue face serious challenges in volatile markets. Watch for improving and more agile governance in Brazil, Columbia, Argentina, India, and Myanmar.
Evaluate the firm’s societal commitments.Proactive companies are seeking to address today’s societal challenges rather than just defend themselves from risks. There is a business case for promoting more inclusive growth: Work by International Monetary Fund researchers has shown that, around the world, higher levels of income inequality are correlated with slower growth. Higher wages support increased consumer spending and broader prosperity. On the other hand, failing to address inequality and other societal ills risks lowers productivity, and leads to more regulation, taxation, and labor radicalization.
NACD’s Global Board Leaders’ Summit, themed around the issue of convergence, will have dedicated sessions on global economic and political disruption, featuring subject-matter experts and seasoned directors. Review the Summit agenda to attend Peterson and others’ sessions addressing global disruption.